Initial Interview: September 13-29, 2004

Re-interview: October 14-17

REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY

KERRY GAINS AMONG INDEPENDENTS ON HEALTH CARE

Now that the presidential debates are over and have been widely analyzed, there is clear evidence that John Kerry made overall gains among registered voters who identify as independents, according to the latest Stony Brook Health Pulse of America poll. Independents are critical to the election outcome and Kerry’s success among them can be attributed in part to his strong performance on health care issues. He went into the debates with an advantage on a number of key health issues, and that lead strengthened during the debates. Kerry still faces problems in convincing voters of his specific approach to health care, but a greater number of independents now say they trust him to handle health care issues than before the debates. Not surprisingly, there was less movement among self-identified Democrats and Republicans. On some specific health issues, Democrats and Republicans moved closer to their respective candidate’s position, but their overall rating of their candidates did not change. The one exception to this general trend is an increased awareness of candidates’ stance on stem cell research across the political spectrum, providing a possible advantage to Kerry whose position to allow new stems cell lines is much closer to that of most registered voters.

Some of Kerry’s health-related policies remain highly popular such as the importation of drugs from Canada, and a repeal of tax cuts to expand health insurance coverage. There are a number of areas, however, in which Kerry’s policies remain controversial, especially government finance for catastrophic health care costs. Democrats moved closer towards Kerry on such proposals, but there was little or no movement among Republicans or independents. For now, Kerry gets better marks than Bush for his ability to lead on health issues, but would face a divided public on his specific health proposals if elected today.

KERRY GAINS AMONG INDEPENDENTS

Overall Impression

More independents reported that their opinion of John Kerry had changed for the better than for the worse over the last several weeks. Kerry shored up his support among Democrats, over 40% of whom said their opinion of him had changed for the better, but he also alienated Republicans, 38% of whom said their opinion of him had changed for the worse. There was less change in opinion toward George Bush, although a greater number of independents said their view of him had changed for the worse than for the better. Just over 20% of Republicans said their image of Bush was more positive, and just under 30% of Democrats said it was worse.

Opinion of Candidate Changed in the Last Several Weeks: October 14-17

This shift in perceptions of the candidates affected registered voters’ preferences. Before the debates, independents were evenly divided in their choice, split roughly 40% for Bush and 40% for Kerry. This shifted after the debates to provide a slight advantage to Kerry among independents (37% for Bush and 43% for Kerry). There was little or no change among registered Democrats or Republicans.

Vote Preference: October 14-17 

Health Care

Throughout this election year, a slightly higher percentage of Americans have trusted Kerry than Bush to handle health care issues. Kerry’s advantage widened slightly after the debates, and rose most dramatically among independents. Before the debates, 33% of registered independents trusted Bush to handle health care compared to 39% who trusted Kerry. The percentage of independents who trusted Bush remained the same after the debates, but the percentage who trusted Kerry increased to 49%. There was much less movement among self-identified Democrats and Republicans.

Trust to Handle Health Care: October 14-17

This trend is coupled with President Bush’s continued low ratings (before the debates) for his handling of health care policy; in mid to late September, 31% of registered voters approved whereas 56% disapproved of his performance on health care. Registered voters remain supportive of Kerry’s proposal to roll back the tax cuts to pay for health insurance coverage. Over 60% of independents, 80% of Democrats, but only 21% of Republicans continued to support repeal of some or all of the tax cuts to pay for health coverage after the debates. This translates into a majority of registered voters overall (56%) who supported the repeal of some or all tax cuts after the debates. This was very similar to levels of support prior to the debates. This was coupled with the widespread perception prior to the debates that Bush’s health care policies would benefit pharmaceutical companies (51%) more than ordinary people (30%) whereas the reverse held true for Kerry (18% think his policies will benefit companies compared to 44% benefiting ordinary people).

SPECIFIC HEALTH CARE PROPOSALS

Kerry’s Strengths

The drug importation issue remains one of Kerry’s most popular stances on health care. There was little movement after the debates in this position, with the exception of Republicans who moved closer toward Bush’s opposition to importation. Before the debates, over 75% of registered voters supported the importation of prescription drugs from Canada and support was strong across the political spectrum. After the debates, Republicans were somewhat less enthusiastic about importation although supportive nonetheless (shifting from 72% in favor to 57%). This resulted in a slight decline in support for drug importation among registered voters overall.

Should be Legal for Americans to Import Drugs from Canada

A question about stem cell research in the second debate may ultimately benefit Kerry. Once again, his position is more widely shared than is Bush’s. Prior to the debates, registered voters favored the use of federal funds for research on new stem cells by a margin of 62% in favor to 28% opposed. Moreover, 63% of registered voters are in favor of conducting stem cell research even when pitted against the alternative of destroying potential life. These views changed little after the debates. What did change, however, was awareness of the candidate’s positions on the issue. Prior to the debate only 43% of registered voters knew that Kerry supported new stem cell research, and 57% knew of Bush’s opposition. This changed dramatically after the debates to 62% of registered voters who were aware of Kerry’s potion and 68% aware of Bush’s. This could obviously benefit Kerry given widespread support for the development of new stem cell lines.

Awareness of Candidates’ Positions on Stem Cell Research

Kerry’s Areas of Weakness in Health Policy: Health Insurance Coverage

Kerry went into the debates with several controversial proposals and he made little headway in these areas, with the exception of shoring up some support among Democrats. Prior to the debates, 45% of registered voters supported Kerry’s position of allowing people to buy into the federal employees health insurance program, compared to 41% who supported government tax credits to pay for private insurance (Bush’s policy). After the debates, this position changed little among registered voters: 46% supported Kerry’s proposal and 41% were opposed. Support increased among registered Democrats, declined among Republicans, and rose by only a few percentage points among independents.

Buy into Plan for Federal Employees vs. Tax Credits for Private Insurance: October 14-17

Kerry’s plan to cut health insurance premiums by having the government pay for all catastrophic health care bills is even less popular. Prior to the debates, just 40% of registered voters supported his position compared to 50% who supported Bush’s position of providing tax-free health savings accounts to pay for private catastrophic insurance. After the debates, Democrats increased their support for his proposal from 45% to 54%. But support remained weak among Republicans and divided among independents.

Government Absorbs Catastrophic vs. Health Savings Accounts: October 14-17

Government funded catastrophic costs and broad access to federal employees health insurance plan are two key elements of Kerry’s proposal to expand affordable health insurance coverage. Mixed support for these two proposal suggests that he would face considerable future controversy on health care if elected.

Broad Exposure to Debates

Almost 85% of registered voters watched at least part of one of the three presidential debates. This varied from a low of 78% among independents to a high of 89% among Democrats, with republicans in the middle at 84%. Moreover, just under 60% watched all or part of all three debates and this was consistent regardless of party affiliation.

Methodology

425 registered voters were interviewed both between Sept. 13 and 29 and then again, after the debates, from Oct. 14-17. The initial interviews were based on a RDD nationally representative sample of telephone numbers drawn from blocks with at least one listed residential number, and included 696 respondents. Up to seven contact attempts were made at each selected household and individuals were selected at random within households in the initial interview. All initial respondents were called in the days following the last debate. Findings for the post-debate sample are weighted using post-stratification weights for party identification (based on numbers in the 2002 ANES), and education, gender, and census region, in accordance with 2002 National Census Bureau statistics. The margin of error is plus/minus 4.75 percentage points among all registered voters.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling HEALTH CARE policy?

Which of these will be the single MOST important issue in your vote for president later this year:

Do you think the government should KEEP the recent tax cut in order to stimulate the economy, REPEAL tax cuts for the MOST WEALTHY to expand health insurance coverage, or should the government repeal ALMOST ALL of the tax cut to expand health insurance coverage?