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New York Metro Poll
Social Security Investment Accounts There is strong opposition among residents of the New York metro area to allowing individuals to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes in the stock market. 61% of local residents opposed this compared to 31% who expressed support. Local opposition is somewhat stronger than that found in the country as a whole (51% expressed opposition to a similar proposal in a recent national CBS/NYT poll). Opposition to the Bush proposal is spread across the region and is equally strong in the city and surrounding suburbs. Younger people are most likely to support private investment accounts, although a plurality of this age group opposes the plan. 41% of those aged 18 to 34 support accounts compared to 48% who oppose them. Support for the plan declines steadily with age; only 19% of those aged 65 and older support accounts compared to 74% of the same age group who oppose them. This decline in support with age is depicted in Figure 1.
Figure 1
Perhaps not surprisingly, the percentage of individuals who support private accounts increases with household income from a low of 21% among households with incomes of $25,000 or less to a high of 42% among those in households earning $90,000 or more. Moreover, Republicans remain divided on this issue. 48% of Republicans support private investment accounts compared to 45% who do not. In general, residents of the New York metro area believe most people would not successfully manage their retirement accounts. 40% of residents believe most people would manage their private investment accounts very or somewhat well, compared to 53% who believe others would not manage their accounts well. Republicans are much more sanguine about the ability of most people to manage their accounts than are Democrats or Independents; 63% of Republicans but only 31% of Democrats believe other people would manage their accounts at least somewhat well.
Weak Local Support for President Bush The president is not especially popular across the New York metro region. His popularity is especially low among African Americans (only 15% approve), lower income households, Democrats and independents. Local residents hold an especially dim view of how President Bush is handling health care and the Social Security issue. Only 22% approve of the way he is handling health care and 24% approve of his handling of Social Security.
MEDICARE IS IN TROUBLE TOO
Concerns about old-age policies go beyond the Social Security program to include Medicare. Roughly comparable numbers of residents of the New York metro area viewed Medicare as facing problems of similar magnitude to those facing Social Security. Few residents view the Medicare program as in crisis but a majority view it as either in crisis or facing serious problems as seen in Figure 2. Local residents were evenly split as to whether the future of Social Security or Medicare concerned them more, with 42% picking Social Security, 43% choosing Medicare, and 12% saying both.
When asked which they would prefer to fix now, there was stronger support for Medicare (50%) than Social Security (39%). The preference to fix Medicare over Social Security was observed across all gender, race, age groups (with the exception of those aged 35-49), and income groups except for the wealthiest households. Moreover, the view that it was more important to fix Medicare than Social Security was shared across the political spectrum as seen in Table 1. Table 1 More Important to Fix Social Security or Medicare Now?
CONCERN ABOUT RETIREMENT INCOME AND AGE
Retirement Income and Social Security President Bush does not need to convince residents of the New York metro area that they need to worry about their future retirement income, or the degree to which they will be able to rely on Social Security. A large majority of local non-retired residents are very (47%) or somewhat (30%) concerned about having enough money to retire on when the time comes. This concern is most pronounced among African American residents and members of low income households. For example, 34% of whites say they are somewhat or very concerned about their retirement income compared to 71% of African Americans. A greater percentage of Democrats are very concerned about their retirement income (56%) than are Republicans (29%). Individuals aged between 34 and 49, for whom retirement issues have growing reality, are especially worried; 57% of those aged between 35 and 49 are very concerned compared to 34% of those aged 50 or older and 44% of those aged 18-34. This difference is depicted in Figure 3. Figure 3
Few non-retired individuals (29%) believe they will get what they are entitled to in benefits from the Social Security system. The majority believe they will get somewhat (29%) or a lot less (25%) than they are entitled to, and a minority (13%) believe they will get no benefits at all. There are broad racial differences with 36% of whites and 23% of blacks saying they will get what they are entitled to from Social Security. Expectations about future Social Security benefits also vary tremendously by age. Only 15% of those aged between 18 and 34 believe they will get what they are entitled to, compared to 58% of those aged 50 and older. These age differences are portrayed in Figure 4. Non-retirees’ belief in what they will get from Social Security varies little by party affiliation with 34% of Republicans and 25% of Democrats believing they will get what they are entitled to.
Not surprisingly, Social Security benefits are seen as more important to members of non-retired low-income households. Among non-retired individuals with a household income of $25,000 or lower, 47% expect Social Security to be a major source of their household’s income. This decreases to only 16% of non-retired individuals in households earning $90,000 or more.
Delayed Retirement As a consequence of widespread concern about future retirement income, a majority of local non-retirees expect to retire later than they would ideally prefer. The majority of current non-retirees (62%) would like to retire before the age of 65 (31% would like to retire prior to 55, and 31% between 55 and 64). This is consistent with present reality; 59% of current retirees in the NY metro area said they had retired before the age of 65. But many fewer non-retirees (39%%) believe they will actually retire before then. Only 13% wish to work beyond the age of 65 but 30% expect to do so. Overall, 50% believe they will have to work beyond the age at which they would ideally like to retire. Leaving aside the 4% of non-retired who never wish to retire, the median desired age of retirement is 60 compared to an expected retirement age of 65. This is very different from the situation that confronted current retirees, with only 7% having retired later than they would have liked, the majority having retired when they had wanted to (57%), and a minority having retired earlier (35%). As a consequence, most non-retired individuals are very (44%) or somewhat concerned (28%) that they will have to retire later than they would like for financial reasons. Non-retirees are also concerned, although at somewhat lower levels, that they might have to retire earlier than they would like for health or job-related reasons as seen in Figure 5. These concerns are most pronounced among African-Americans, members of low income households, and residents of New York City. For example, 51% of New York City residents were very concerned about having to retire later than they would like for financial reasons compared to 41% of residents of Long island and the New Jersey suburbs and 32% of residents of the northern New York suburbs.
CONCERN ABOUT FUTURE HEALTH COSTS
In addition to concerns about their future retirement income, local non-retirees are concerned abut the future of the Medicare program. Just over 50% lack confidence that the Medicare system will provide them with adequate health care in old age. African Americans were especially pessimistic about the future of the program; 63% lacked confidence in its future. Republicans were considerably more optimistic (35% lacked confidence) than either Democrats (55%) or Independents (54%). Concern about the future of Medicare translated into pervasive concerns among non-retirees’ about their future health expenses. Over three-quarters (77%) of all non-retired residents of the New York metro area said they were very or somewhat concerned about being able to cover their health-related expenses in retirement. This concern was especially pronounced among African Americans, and members of low-income households. And non-retirees’ concerns about future health-costs rivaled their concerns about future retirement income as seen in Figure 6. The importance of health –related expenses in retirement was underscored by evidence that over 20% of current retirees reported spending 25% or more of their retirement income on out-of-pocket health expenses, and an additional 23% spent between 10 and 25%.
POSSIBLE CHANGES TO LEGALIZED ABORTION
Pro-choice views are dominant among New York metro area residents. 47% believe that abortion should be legal under all circumstances, an additional 42% believe it should be legal under some circumstances, and only 8% believe it should not be legal under any circumstances. A majority (65%) of New York metro area residents believe that President Bush will appoint justices to the Supreme Court who are opposed to abortion, 19% believe he will appoint justices who will keep abortion legal, and 14% don’t know. Most local residents (63%) believe that Supreme Court nominees should publicly state their position on abortion before being approved by the US Senate. A majority of Republicans, Democrats and independents hold this view. The view that Supreme Court nominees’ should state their position on abortion is equally prevalent among those who believe abortion should not be legal (60%) and those who believe it should be legal under some or all circumstances (63%). Moreover, a surprisingly high 40% of local residents thought it was somewhat or very likely that abortion could become illegal in the US in the next four years. African Americans were especially likely to think this (50%), and the belief was somewhat more prevalent among Democrats (47%) than Republicans (36%).
SUPPORT FOR LOCAL STEM CELL RESEARCH
A majority of New York metro area residents view it as more important to conduct stem cell research (62%) than to not destroy the potential life of human embryos used in this research (24%). There is broad support for stem cell research across lines of gender, race, age, education, religion (including Catholics), and political affiliation. This broad support translates into considerable support for the use of state tax dollars to encourage stem cell research. 60% of New York metro area residents supported this somewhat or strongly compared to 29% who opposed it. Support existed across the board and was especially strong among the area’s best educated and most affluent residents. Moreover, there is roughly equal support among residents of both states (New York and New Jersey) included in the poll.
CAP ON MEDICAL MALPRACTICE PAIN AND SUFFERING DAMAGES Local residents support the administration’s plan to cap pain and suffering damages in medical malpractice law suits and believe it will reduce medical costs. A majority (57%) of New York metro area residents supported President Bush’s plan to place a cap on non-economic medical damages in medical malpractice law suits. And this support was observed across the political spectrum, gaining majority support among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents as seen in Table 2. A majority of local residents (64%) also believed this cap would help to reduce the overall cost of health care in the US, a view that was shared by Republicans and Democrats. Table 2 How strongly do you support or oppose placing a CAP of $250,000 on the amount that can be awarded to patients for non-economic damages such as pain and suffering in a medical malpractice law suit?
Nonetheless, there was also majority support for juries awarding damages to patients as a way to punish doctors for negligence and carelessness. 51% of local residents supported this compared to 43% who were opposed, although support split along political lines with most Republicans opposing this notion and most Democrats supporting it.
METHODOLOGY The poll was conducted between February 3 and February 27 by the Stony Brook University Center for Survey Research. 850 adults were interviewed from the New York City Metro Area: 215 from Long Island, 209 from New York City, 212 from New Jersey suburbs, and 214 from northern suburbs. The poll was based on an RDD sample of telephone numbers drawn from blocks with at least one-listed residential number. Up to 5 contact attempts were made at each selected household and individuals were selected at random within households. Findings within each of four sub-areas are weighted using post-stratification weights for age, education, and gender in accordance with 2000 Census Bureau statistics. Findings for the overall Metro Area are additionally weighted using pre-stratification weights to correct for the differential probability of selection in each sub-area. The margin of error is plus/minus 3.4 percentage points for the entire sample and is slightly higher (3.9) for non-retired respondents. Non-retired respondents include current workers, the unemployed, students, and non-retired homemakers.
Residents of the New York Metro Area Percentage Distribution of Responses NOTE: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. __________________________________________________________________________ Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Disapprove 54 Don't know 8 Refused 2 Total 100 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling HEALTH CARE policy? Disapprove 58 Don't know 18 Refused 2 Total 100 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling SOCIAL SECURITY? Disapprove 62 Don't know 14 Refused 1 Total 100 Which of the following four statements comes closest to your own view of the SOCIAL SECURITY program? Would you say: The program has major problems but is not in crisis 44 The program has minor problems, OR 21 The program has no problems 4 Don't know 6 Refused 0 Total 100 Do you FAVOR allowing individuals to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes in the U.S. stock market, which might increase their retirement income, OR are you OPPOSED to this because it could be risky and lower retirement income if the stock market declines? Oppose 61 Don't know 6 Refused 2 Total 100 In your view, how well would most people manage their private retirement investment accounts if allowed to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes in the stock market? Somewhat well 33 Not very well 35 Not at all well 19 Don't know 6 Refused 1 Total 100 Do you think that by the time you reach retirement age, you will receive: [Question asked only of non-retired respondents (n=654)] What you are entitled to in retirement Benefits from the Social Security system 29 Somewhat less than you are entitled to 29 A lot less than you are entitled to 25 No benefits at all 13 Not eligible for Social Security 0 Don't know 4 Refused 0 Total 100 When you retire, do you expect SOCIAL SECURITY to be: [Question asked only of non-retired respondents (n=654)] A minor source of income 56 Not a source of income at all 13 Don't know 4 Refused 0 Total 100 Thinking about all sources of retirement income, including your savings and Social Security, how concerned are you that you will have enough money to retire on when the time comes? [Question asked only of non-retired respondents (n=654)] Somewhat concerned 30 Not very concerned 16 Not at all concerned 6 Don't know 0 Refused 1 Total 100 [Question asked only of non-retired respondents (n=654)] [Recoded responses of an open-ended question] 56 to 64 years 31 65 years 23 More than 65 years 9 Never want to retire 4 Don't know 2 Refused 0 Total 100 Realistically, at what age do you EXPECT to retire? [Question asked only of non-retired respondents (n=654)] [Recoded responses of an open-ended question] 56 to 64 years 28 65 years 24 66 to 70 years 18 More than 70 years 6 Never expect to retire 6 Don't know 7 Refused 0 Total 100 Different factors may prevent people from retiring earlier or later than they would like. How concerned are you that you may have to retire LATER than you would like, to maintain adequate health care coverage and other employer-provided benefits? [Question asked only of non-retired respondents (n=654)] Somewhat concerned 28 Not very concerned 14 Not at all concerned 7 Never want to retire 4 Don't know 1 Refused 1 Total 100 How concerned are you that you may have to retire LATER than you would like, for financial reasons? [Question asked only of non-retired respondents (n=654)] Somewhat concerned 26 Not very concerned 18 Not at all concerned 9 Never want to retire 4 Don't know 1 Refused 0 Total 100 How concerned are you that you may have to retire EARLIER than you would like, because of your own or a family member's health problems? [Question asked only of non-retired respondents (n=654)] |
